How dangerous is the earthquake in Myanmar? Why was no one warned in advance?

The 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar occurred suddenly because there was no accurate forecasting technology. This earthquake combined both factors of occurring in the shallow part of the Earth's crust and being close to residential areas, which could have killed tens of thousands.

In an article published on Sky News on March 28, science and technology editor Tom Clarke said the world's highest mountain range, the Himalayas, is a testament to the power of tectonic plates, as it was pushed up by the gradual northward movement of the Indian plate into the Eurasian plate.

The power is almost unimaginable, and disaster strikes when even a fraction of it is suddenly released. Tragically, this happened just 9.6km (6 miles) below the ground, right under the feet of the 1.2 million people who live in the Myanmar city of Mandalay and surrounding settlements.

A fault line along the Indo-Eurasian plate boundary runs almost directly beneath the city of Mandalay. Over decades, as the plates slide past each other, stress builds up in the subsurface rock, and when it ruptures, an earthquake occurs.

Such strike-slip faults, as they are technically called, do not produce the world's most powerful earthquakes. However, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake is still extremely powerful and devastating, especially if it occurs in a shallow part of the Earth's crust and near populated areas.

CNN added on March 28 that the March 28 earthquake was certainly the largest earthquake to hi.t Myanmar since 1946 and possibly the strongest in modern times. The 1946 quake was estimated to have a magnitude of 7.6 to 7.7 and also occurred along the Sagaing Fault.

This is also the first earthquake of magnitude above 7.0 in Myanmar since 1991, when a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred about 160km north of the epicenter of the recent quake.

The last time there was an earthquake of this magnitude on land was the 2023 Turkey earthquake, which killed more than 50,000 people. The Myanmar earthquake had similar shaking and damage estimates to the Turkey earthquake at that time.

The Turkey earthquake left about 750,000 people shaken severely, while the Myanmar earthquake left about 800,000 people shaken severely, according to the USGS. Notably, Myanmar had more than twice as many people affected by the strong and severe earthquakes (magnitude 8 and 9), nearly 5 million, compared to 2.7 million in the Turkey earthquake.

The extent of the damage caused by the disaster is still unknown. However, the Dailymail reported that the USGS warned that the deat.h toll could reach 10,000, or even 100,000.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Hong Phuong - Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology - commented on this when talking to the media on the morning of March 29, about the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar.

According to Mr. Phuong, the earthquake in Myanmar was a tectonic earthquake, not an earthquake caused by human impact. "In Myanmar, there is a deep fault line, which is the source of very strong earthquakes in this area. This is not the only strong earthquake, but also one of the strongest earthquakes that has ever occurred.

With a magnitude of 7.7, this can be considered a destructive earthquake, causing quite heavy damage to people and property," Mr. Phuong commented.

According to Mr. Phuong, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City in particular and Vietnam in general are still safe after the earthquake in Myanmar, because when a strong earthquake occurs, the most severe damage occurs in the epicenter area.

"Hanoi is more than 1,000km away from Myanmar, so it only suffers from the effects of transmitted vibrations. It's like if we hi.t a table, the cups nearby might break, while the other cups on the table far away will just vibrate and sway.

Hanoi can shake, especially in high-rise buildings where the amplitude of vibration is strong, people will feel it more clearly. In case of broken glass, the force is very strong, but this is a force that spreads from a distance, not from underground, so it will not cause destructive damage like in Myanmar.

Thailand is closer to Myanmar. It is not known whether the building in Thailand that collapsed was earthquake-proof, but the video shows that it was a newly built building, so the structure may have been unstable, leading to its destruction.

In Vietnam, we can rest assured that there are no collapsed houses or deaths due to the earthquake in Myanmar, but only shaking or human feelings from seismic waves causing nausea and discomfort" - Mr. Phuong shared.

Dr. Nguyen Xuan Anh, director of the Earthquake Information and Tsunami Warning Center - Institute of Earth Sciences (Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology), said that the earthquake in Myanmar was a large earthquake and basically, large earthquakes have a very wide area of influence, spreading to big cities, while big cities have many high-rise buildings so they are very sensitive to tremors.

"The impact of an earthquake depends on distance, ground and structure. With the earthquake in Myanmar, the distance was far so the impact on Vietnam was weak," said Mr. Xuan Anh.

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