Flu "invades" the world: Risk of pandemic re-emergence, can Vietnam escape?

Winter 2024-2025 witnessed a worrying increase in respiratory diseases. From Korea, Japan, a series of countries are facing great pressure from the epidemic, raising questions about the risk of spreading and affecting Vietnam, especially Ho Chi Minh City.

South Korea is experiencing its worst flu outbreak since 2016, with a spike in cases, especially among young people. According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KCDA), the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) has spiked, approaching the peak of 2016. The most common strains of influenza have been identified as A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B. However, the KCDA said that current flu vaccines remain highly effective against circulating strains and that no mutations have been detected that affect virus resistance.

This increase is believed to be due to cold weather, which facilitates the spread of respiratory diseases, including RSV, HMPV and COVID-19. However, the number of COVID-19 cases has also unexpectedly increased again in the past month, showing the complicated development of the epidemic situation.

In addition to South Korea, Japan has also seen a rapid increase in flu cases in all 47 prefectures. The average number of flu patients per medical facility has reached a decade high for this time of year. Experts predict the outbreak will peak after the New Year holidays, due to declining immunity and travel and gatherings during the holiday.

In Europe, flu cases have also surged after the holiday season, with children under 15 and adults over 60 most affected. Hospitals in France and Spain have reported increased admissions, with influenza B dominating. Many hospitals have set up temporary units to ease the pressure on emergency departments. Romania has also seen flu cases nearly double in just one week, with several deaths related to flu complications.

In the United States, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a spike in cases of norovirus (a virus that causes stomach symptoms), COVID-19, and RSV. In particular, the number of COVID-19 cases nearly tripled in just one week in early December 2024. This increase is thought to be due to a dominant new coronavirus variant called XEC, which easily evades the immune system.

More worryingly, the US also recorded the first death of a person infected with H5N1 bird flu. The patient was over 65 years old and had underlying health conditions. More than 65 people in the US have contracted bird flu in the new outbreak, mostly due to close contact while working with infected poultry.

With the flu epidemic spreading rapidly in many countries, especially South Korea, which has many trade and tourism activities with Ho Chi Minh City, people cannot help but worry about the risk of the disease entering. Associate Professor, Dr. Do Van Dung, lecturer at the University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, said that the real risk only appears in two situations: the flu virus is a new strain that the current vaccine is not effective, or the flu virus is an old strain but has a mutation that changes in toxicity, ability to spread or drug resistance.

However, according to current data, neither of these scenarios has occurred. The influenza strains prevalent in Korea are covered by current vaccines. Therefore, implementing influenza quarantine measures at airports is unnecessary, as these strains are already present in Ho Chi Minh City, albeit at a lower rate.

However, Ho Chi Minh City residents should still proactively practice good respiratory hygiene to prevent respiratory infections. In particular, people at risk of severe influenza such as children, the elderly, pregnant women and people with underlying diseases should get vaccinated against influenza to protect their health.

The flu epidemic situation in the world is complicated, requiring proactive prevention from each individual and the community. Although the direct risk from the flu epidemic in Korea to Ho Chi Minh City is not too high, raising awareness of personal hygiene and full vaccination are important measures to protect health this winter. At the same time, the authorities need to continue to closely monitor the epidemic situation in the world to have timely response measures.

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